Drop 'out of date' population data to protect Christchurch greenbelt, say councillors

CALLS have been made for the government to revise the “out of date” methodology behind housing targets amid fears of development in greenbelt land around Christchurch.

BCP Council’s Christchurch Independents group have written to housing secretary Robert Jenrick expressing “serious concerns” over its numbers, writes Josh Wright of the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

But the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said its figures gave councils “stability and certainty” and that targets could be set locally.

Forecasts for housing demand are based on population projections calculated from 2014 Office for National Statistics data.

This showed the BCP Council area was expected to see population growth of 0.73% per year but the more recent 2018 data put this at 0.17%.

The letter written by the Christchurch Independents said it was “inconceivable” that this “large change” was not considered in the government calculations.

It warned that unless this was changed, greenbelt land would have to be used for housing and that developers would prioritise this over brownfield sites.

“It is our opinion that the government’s standard method cannot be justified, and is fundamentally flawed, by using 2014 national statistics,” the letter said.

“A new, realistic approach is required evidenced by credible, up-to-date statistics.”

Work is under way to put together a new BCP Council Local Plan containing key development policies for the area.

Councillors have warned that even increasing the density of housing in urban areas and redeveloping brownfield land will leave it thousands of homes short of its housing targets.

This prompted councillors to agree to include every greenbelt site put forward by developers in a call for sites in a consultation planned for this summer – that includes a string of locations around the edge of Christchurch including a recreation area in Burton and fields at the edge of Bransgore.

Speaking last month, Cllr Mike Brooke, who heads the working group overseeing the planning blueprint, said that “at this stage, this is the only way forward”.

But councillors are now stepping up calls on the government to reassess housing figures to prevent greenbelt land being needed.

Christchurch Independent councillor Margaret Phipps, the former cabinet member for planning, said: “I believe that BCP Council should be actively challenging the government’s use of unrealistic, out-of-date housing need projections.

“We should not be producing a Local Plan for the area using the wrong statistics.”

However, a spokesman for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said it believed its current approach was the best for local authorities. “The standard method is the starting point for calculating the number of homes required in an area, not a target,” they said.

“Councils are best placed to determine their local housing need and set their own targets.

“We believe the 2014-based household projections continue to give councils stability and certainty in their plans while meeting our objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes.”

They added that preventing greenbelt development “remains a priority” for the government and that national planning policy gives it “strong protections”.