No-deal Brexit could cost New Forest residents 3,400 jobs, warn academics

NEARLY 3,400 jobs could be lost by New Forest residents under a no-deal Brexit, according to research by academics.

The paper, published by the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex, said about 2.5% of all working residents in the district could become unemployed if the UK crashes out without an agreement.

The analysis of Hampshire and Sussex found nearly 42,600 jobs – around one in 40 – held by people living within the counties’ 34 parliamentary constituencies were in jeopardy if there was no deal.

In New Forest East a combined 1,847 jobs would be lost by local residents working in and out of the area – 2.1% of all employment. The number in New Forest West was 1,547 (2.9%).

The biggest chunk of job losses, around 11,000, would be in professional, real estate and other business services, the report predicted.

Dr Serwicka, research fellow in the economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex, said: “This research makes very clear that both soft and hard forms of Brexit, but in particular, a ‘no deal’ Brexit, are likely to have a negative impact on the lives of many residents in Hampshire and Sussex.

“Of course, we cannot say for certain that this number of job losses will definitely happen, as employers may choose to reduce number of hours and wages rather than cut workforce.

“But this analysis gives some indication of which places in our region may be most vulnerable to Brexit.”

A no-deal Brexit is in prospect as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to persuade a majority of the House of Commons to back her withdrawal agreement. A vote has been scheduled for 11th December.

The worst-hit area in Hampshire measured by the proportion of job losses was predicted to be Aldershot with 3.6%. The least affected was Winchester with 1.8%. The county average was 2.6%.

Leonard Winters, University of Sussex economics professor and UK Trade Policy Observatory director, commented: “As constituency MPs in Sussex and Hampshire vote on the withdrawal agreement next month, they will have very difficult decisions to make knowing that the livelihoods of hundreds of their constituents will rest in their hands.”

Last week New Forest West MP Sir Desmond Swayne described to the A&T the impact of no-deal as “a minor inconvenience” and said it was “difficult to imagine” how he could vote for the proposed deal.

He later told Mrs May in the Commons that the separate joint UK/EU political declaration guiding future trade negotiations was a “wish list” and described the withdrawal agreement as a “trap”.

Julian Lewis, of New Forest East, described negative predictions as “Project Fear Mark 2”. He has promised to vote against Mrs May’s proposal and said leaving the EU without a deal would force both sides to negotiate a free trade arrangement.

In the Commons this week he asked if the Prime Minister agreed with the chancellor's comments that any agreement that looked like one half of the country “winning” was “disastrous”. He asked: “If so, what was the point of holding the referendum in the first place?”

The UK Trade Policy observatory is a partnership between the University of Sussex and international affairs think tank Chatham House. The job loss calculations were based on predicted business output reductions.